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The Week In Numbers for the Week Ending 7-15-2016

Each week, we strive to provide you a bare bones summary of what happened to the price of WTI, Natural Gas, and Brent Crude. In addition, we summarize the major reports from Genspace, API, and EIA on Inventory Data. And we also throw in the rig count for good measure.

WTI Open on July 11, 2016:              $45.07

WTI as of 12:30 on July 15, 2016:     $45.81

Brent Open on July 11, 2016:             $46.49

Brent as of 12:30 PM on July 15, 2016: $47.55

Natural Gas Open on July 11, 2016:   $2.819

BG as of 12:30 PM on July 15, 2016: $2.750

            On July 13, 2016, Genscape released Cushing Inventory data for this week. Cushing is the largest oil storage tank in the world, and is the settlement point for crude oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. According to Genscape, Inventory increased 171,511 barrels compared to an increase of 230,026 barrels the week before at the Cushing settlement point.

            On July 12, 2016, API reported its weekly inventory draw for the prior week. According to API, US Crude inventories increased by 2,200,000 barrels. This compares to a decrease of 6,700,000 barrels last week. This report was negative for the price of oil as analysts had expected a decrease of approximately 3,000,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased 1,5000,000 barrels compared to a decrease of 3,600,000 barrels the week before. Analysts had predicated a decline of approximately 432,000 barrels.

            On July 13, 2016, the Energy Information Administration released weekly data for the prior week.   The EIA weekly report, included the following important notes:

-          U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day during the week ending July 8, 2016, 143,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries are operating at 92.3% capacity.

-          U.S. Crude imports averaged about 7.8 million barrels per day last week, down by 522,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

-          U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 521.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels fro this time of year.

            The EIA also issued its monthly report. Click here to read more about the monthly report: http://www.fsmetals.com/about-us/newsletters/more-good-news-on-long-term-outlook-for-oil-prices

Unfortunately, the EIA report was not what we hoped for and markets reacted badly shortly after the report was released. Analysts had generally expected a higher draw. The net effect was that oil traded lower after the release of the report. The report does seem to indicate some demand side weakening.

To read more of the report, visit the EIA’s website at: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

            On Friday, July 15, 2016 Baker Hughes released the weekly rig count data. The US oil rig count rose by 6 to 357. This is the third weekly increase The number of gas only rigs rose by 1 to 89 and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 1, taking the total to 440. Canada added 14 rigs.

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